THE STATE OF RHUTHUN/RUTHIN IN 2017
Yesterday afternoon was very pleasant. The sun was unseasonally warm, and, well before the snowdrops were out, we enjoyed a taste of spring. So early. The temperature was at 14C. Younger people were out in t-shirts. It was hard to be pessimistic about Rhuthun/Ruthin on an afternoon such as this... yet there doesn't seem to be much cause for optimism.
Shops
In recent years, it's always been bleak after Christmas. 2017 is no exception. The rise and rise of internet shopping—coupled with easy-to-access broadband now widely available in both town and in most villages—will this year further weaken the Rhuthun economy. We've said it recently before: there's probably nothing other than a limited future for Rhuthun's shops, as the economy catches up with itself.
We know that the National Westminster is about to close. We also now know what people had thought was inevitable: the off licence called Ruthin Wine Sellers is now also about to shut. It's lasted just over five years. It never seemed to do much trade. It's a symptom: on the one hand, there's plenty of alcoholic choice amid Tesco's aisles, at reasonable prices, too. On the other, you can now easily order in bulk over the internet. Convenience shops in town centres cannot compete. The premises are in a good location and someone will snap it up but will this stay longer term or will it be to the detriment of a shop that becomes a gap elsewhere in town? What effect on the Square will the closure of the NatWest have on footfall?
We have to face it: we can no longer compete. Even Dinbych will triumph over us, once Aldi and Home Bargains plus associated units are completed later this year.
Housing
The housing market has been doing reasonably well—if you're looking for a house at or below £250,000. The trouble is, speculative builders of the 1980s and 1990s had increasingly put up larger houses and their owners, where keen to sell, wish to do so at larger prices. No one can afford them any more, not in Rhuthun, and they've been sticking for three, even four years, even longer.
And, there's only so much recirculating locally within the housing market. Without people moving in to the area, the market is dead. This allows those who wish or need to move or to leave to do so. Those selling homes at less than £250,000 aren't then reinvesting in Rhuthun. They must be migrating.
So, there has to be a reason to move to Rhuthun and, at the moment, we cannot see to many of them. Nice environment and a pretty town, of course it is, but there needs to be more than this because people aren't moving here simply to get away from it all. Commuting/jobs and education are the housing drivers. But are these sectors dynamic?
In any case, the environment will begin to look a little shoddy again as we predict more gaps in the town centre.
Jobs
Where are any new jobs coming from? Traditionally, we rely on the county council for well paid employment, indeed *any* employment. Outside county hall, salaries are no more than ordinary. When did you last see a job advertisement for an averagely let alone reasonably well-paid position at county hall? They don't exist any more. Neither do they in Yr Wyddgrug/Mold at Flintshire's county hall. Both councils are shedding, not hiring and this will probably never turn around again. If there *is* any upturn in the public sector, it's likely to be so far off that it will be after collaboration reduces county hall to a mere sub-branch, with shed loads of redundancies. Compare that to the position up to the 1980s. Denbighshire and indeed Rhuthun relies on the public sector more than in any other county in Wales... so the prognosis is poor.
Commuting
Neither is commuting the answer like it once was. Our housing boom of the early 1980s was fed, we could say "driven" by commuting. We will still largely be a dormitory town but the attractions we once offered are now nothing other than faded glory. No longer are sufficient numbers willing to put distance between where they live and work. Not that we have suitable housing for them: the 1980s boom was 30 years ago and those houses are tired. The only new builds are at Galsdir and you wouldn't want to risk that, at least not till the claims are concluded and the insurance market is satisfied with the renewed defences. Home working will become a significant boom, freeing up people to live where they like but there is still and will continue to be a need for some commuting. People are now less optimistic about long commutes. Fuel prices are lower but creeping up but they aren't lulled into a false sense of petrol security. And neither do they actually want to commute longer distances. Zoopla may be a struggling estate agent portal but it does major on travel distance.
The conclusion is that Rhuthun has suddenly found itself just that bit too far from the real economic world. Compare the traffic entering Yr Wyddgrug from the east and watch it thin dramatically west of Yr Wyddgrug along the A494.
Education
One significant draw is the strength of local schools. Why else would Rightmove have a "School Checker" tab? We have two new primary schools in the offing and their reputations, already high, will no doubt be enhanced further. But what of the secondary sector? Ysgol Brynhyfryd has improved and we await some very positive news but it will probably never regain its rightful place at the top of the tree in terms of schools in north east Wales.
As such, Ysgol Brynhyfryd once responsible as a major draw to town, will probably never again be in that position. Brynhyfryd's examination results are expected to be good but there are other fine schools which have now overtaken Brynhyfryd. Climbing back to the point where it was in the top 10 schools in Wales, as it was 15 years ago, is a big (and probably impossible) ask.
Our View of Ourselves
We once had something of a vision as a town. I'm not talking about medieval Wednesdays, though this was indeed a good time. Whatever happened to the Masterplan, for example? We seem to have given up. Our town council seems to be adrift. Or, perhaps, it just realises what we all know... that the survival of a town of less than 6,000 people in a rural area is by no means a foregone conclusion any more. No one owes us a living. The swirling entropy of the internet, distances to travel to work, for shopping, for health and for entertainment are slowly destroying our town as, year by year, we fail to compete. It seems difficult to be positive in outlook.
Yesterday afternoon was very pleasant. The sun was unseasonally warm, and, well before the snowdrops were out, we enjoyed a taste of spring. So early. The temperature was at 14C. Younger people were out in t-shirts. It was hard to be pessimistic about Rhuthun/Ruthin on an afternoon such as this... yet there doesn't seem to be much cause for optimism.
Shops
In recent years, it's always been bleak after Christmas. 2017 is no exception. The rise and rise of internet shopping—coupled with easy-to-access broadband now widely available in both town and in most villages—will this year further weaken the Rhuthun economy. We've said it recently before: there's probably nothing other than a limited future for Rhuthun's shops, as the economy catches up with itself.
Housing
The housing market has been doing reasonably well—if you're looking for a house at or below £250,000. The trouble is, speculative builders of the 1980s and 1990s had increasingly put up larger houses and their owners, where keen to sell, wish to do so at larger prices. No one can afford them any more, not in Rhuthun, and they've been sticking for three, even four years, even longer.
This substantial four bed house has been on the market for nearly three years. It was originally priced at £330,000 but in that time has reduced by 15 per cent to £280,000. It remains unsold
And, there's only so much recirculating locally within the housing market. Without people moving in to the area, the market is dead. This allows those who wish or need to move or to leave to do so. Those selling homes at less than £250,000 aren't then reinvesting in Rhuthun. They must be migrating.
So, there has to be a reason to move to Rhuthun and, at the moment, we cannot see to many of them. Nice environment and a pretty town, of course it is, but there needs to be more than this because people aren't moving here simply to get away from it all. Commuting/jobs and education are the housing drivers. But are these sectors dynamic?
In any case, the environment will begin to look a little shoddy again as we predict more gaps in the town centre.
Jobs
Where are any new jobs coming from? Traditionally, we rely on the county council for well paid employment, indeed *any* employment. Outside county hall, salaries are no more than ordinary. When did you last see a job advertisement for an averagely let alone reasonably well-paid position at county hall? They don't exist any more. Neither do they in Yr Wyddgrug/Mold at Flintshire's county hall. Both councils are shedding, not hiring and this will probably never turn around again. If there *is* any upturn in the public sector, it's likely to be so far off that it will be after collaboration reduces county hall to a mere sub-branch, with shed loads of redundancies. Compare that to the position up to the 1980s. Denbighshire and indeed Rhuthun relies on the public sector more than in any other county in Wales... so the prognosis is poor.
Commuting
Neither is commuting the answer like it once was. Our housing boom of the early 1980s was fed, we could say "driven" by commuting. We will still largely be a dormitory town but the attractions we once offered are now nothing other than faded glory. No longer are sufficient numbers willing to put distance between where they live and work. Not that we have suitable housing for them: the 1980s boom was 30 years ago and those houses are tired. The only new builds are at Galsdir and you wouldn't want to risk that, at least not till the claims are concluded and the insurance market is satisfied with the renewed defences. Home working will become a significant boom, freeing up people to live where they like but there is still and will continue to be a need for some commuting. People are now less optimistic about long commutes. Fuel prices are lower but creeping up but they aren't lulled into a false sense of petrol security. And neither do they actually want to commute longer distances. Zoopla may be a struggling estate agent portal but it does major on travel distance.
The conclusion is that Rhuthun has suddenly found itself just that bit too far from the real economic world. Compare the traffic entering Yr Wyddgrug from the east and watch it thin dramatically west of Yr Wyddgrug along the A494.
Education
One significant draw is the strength of local schools. Why else would Rightmove have a "School Checker" tab? We have two new primary schools in the offing and their reputations, already high, will no doubt be enhanced further. But what of the secondary sector? Ysgol Brynhyfryd has improved and we await some very positive news but it will probably never regain its rightful place at the top of the tree in terms of schools in north east Wales.
As such, Ysgol Brynhyfryd once responsible as a major draw to town, will probably never again be in that position. Brynhyfryd's examination results are expected to be good but there are other fine schools which have now overtaken Brynhyfryd. Climbing back to the point where it was in the top 10 schools in Wales, as it was 15 years ago, is a big (and probably impossible) ask.
Our View of Ourselves
We once had something of a vision as a town. I'm not talking about medieval Wednesdays, though this was indeed a good time. Whatever happened to the Masterplan, for example? We seem to have given up. Our town council seems to be adrift. Or, perhaps, it just realises what we all know... that the survival of a town of less than 6,000 people in a rural area is by no means a foregone conclusion any more. No one owes us a living. The swirling entropy of the internet, distances to travel to work, for shopping, for health and for entertainment are slowly destroying our town as, year by year, we fail to compete. It seems difficult to be positive in outlook.