Covid Kicks In

Rhuthun/Ruthin currently faces a spike in covid-19 cases. Infections in the area are against the overall Denbighshire grain of diminishing cases. How did we get to this point?

The Statistics

First, the stats, at at today, Friday November 27th.

 

Here is a selection of key Denbighshire settlements, showing the number of C19 cases this week and last, i.e. in the weeks November 14th to 20th and 21st to 27th. The position in both Y Rhyl and Dinbych has improved and the critical position of Llandyrnog and Llangollen has markedly. But, Rhuthun's has worsened considerably.

In fact, Rhuthun's has increased by a factor of three; whereas Llangollen's rate has decreased by the same amount.

Rhuthun's recent history shows that the virus retreated but last week it jumped considerably. Before we get too carried away, numbers are still small and the smaller the number, the more they are likely to jump. That jump is nevertheless significant.

The Reasons

The climb last week was linked to Ysgol Borthyn. A child brought the virus in and a teacher caught the infection. The teacher passed it on to two other staff members, while a combination of the teacher and pupils infected at least six and possible seven others.

Then, one of the children carried the virus home and infected the mother. She works in the Rhuthun delivery office and her infection was responsible for postal disruption from November 25th (you may have noticed late deliveries and collections on 26th. That was the case on my walk). She also infected someone at the Dinbych delivery office. 

Meanwhile, we're told that family potentially passed the virus to a grandmother. She worked at Ysgol Brynhyfryd as a cleaner.

Ysgol Brynhyfryd

Ysgol Brynhyfryd was shut on Thursday and Friday. The cleaner was showing covid-19 symptoms and managers made the assumption that because covid-19 was in the household then this potentially threatened other cleaners. The cleaner was ill on Thursday and it resulted in no staff being unable to clean the school. They were all sent home. As such, the school could not open.

The deserted car park at Brynhyfryd was empty today and yesterday

This was the decision of the cleaner's employer (which is not the school). 16 cleaners were at risk. Nevertheless, it's also fair to say that both the school and the LEA were criticised by Public Health Wales for the closure decision. PHW deemed it unnecessary at that stage. Nevertheless, without cleaners, who are even more critical at times such as this, the school simply couldn't function.

There was a certain amount of reputational damage as a result. Some asked why the employer hadn't considered this a possibility and why there was no back-up plan.

It also appeared that there was an unusually slow result turnaround in this case. If there was one time when this was needed quickly, it was this.  

To the credit of parents and children alike, there was no free-for-all on the streets of Rhuthun/Ruthin on either Thursday or Friday. I saw two school-aged youth out on Friday only. Contrast this to scenes in Rhyl when their schools and Ysgol Glan Clwyd shut earlier in the term. It was business as usual at Brynhyfryd as far as home learning was concerned and not even sixth formers who tend to come out at lunchtime were seen in town.

Plas Gwyn

Meanwhile, the county council has a responsibility for all care providers, private and public. On November 23rd, it issued a plea to staff to form an emergency cover team to relieve the acute issues faced by care homes. Plas Gwyn nursing home, Llanychan, is currently second locally only to that at Llangollen Fechan in terms of facilities that are causing concern. In both, there's currently an incident management team.

In terms of the school's coronavirus history, it was the first school in Wales to close, citing a number of vulnerable staff. In the academic year to November 19th, the school had 62 pupils self-isolating (actually between October 21st and 30th). In addition to Borthyn, we heard on Friday that there were cases at Rhos Street School, as well. 

Back to Brynhyfryd. What would happen if the cleaner was positive? The school surely cannot close for a fortnight and presumably would have to find contract cleaners. In the event, we're pleased to report that the cleaner tested negative.

There should be no blame here. At least two of the children tested were asymptomatic. It's no doubt the case that no one deliberately spread the virus but what this does show is how easily and quickly this thing can and does pass on... and on.

Ysbyty Rhuthun

Meanwhile, it's emerging that there are seven covid-19 cases associated with Rhuthun hospital.

Why are we Seeing Issues in Rhuthun that are Worse than in Rhyl?

1. Rhuthun over the last fortnight to three weeks has seen outbreaks associated with Ysgol Borthyn and the hospital.
2. The numbers are small but in relation to the small ambient population, the figure per 100,000 looks higher.
3. There is actually more contact between people in smaller towns or even vuillages. People are more familiar with each other and are more inlcined to drop their guard.

There's still an element of randomness in all of this.