Three Weeks to Changed Behaviours?

Lee Waters, the deputy minister responsible for 20 mph, suggested on the BBC a week ago that motorists needed 28 days to get used to the new blanket default speed limit. That's today. 

So, how is it for you?

1. Our observations, though not claiming these to be accurate, are that during the very early part of the first week most motorists stuck at 20 mph. It hasn't taken long, however, for this to change and for urban traffic speeds to creep up. But I fancy that, more recently, 20 mph is catching on—for some. 

On the approach to Rhuthun from Lôn Speiriol Isaf, the 30 mph signs are still unchanged

Just by *estimating* traffic speeds as vehicles pass on unobstructed roads suggests that:

• About 15 per cent of traffic sticks resolutely to 20 mph. 

• About 55 per cent is between 25 and 30. This is probably a 'result' for the Welsh government, as previously many drivers edged over 30 mph.

• About 20 per cent is at 30 or slightly above. 

• And about 10 per cent is blatantly over 30.

Without wishing to stereotype, the 'blatants' are not just those antiques with bolted on spoilers, go faster stripes and deliberately noisy exhausts beloved of boy racers (though these represent a significant proportion). They can be any motorist. They include some white vans and among the more anonymous of them are our friends some local builders.

2. The sample size for the above observations is larger than the following. As imperfect as it is, where we have a little more more accurate data is by driving at 20 mph ourselves and seeing the reaction of those immediately in front or behind. To do this, we used our satnavs to pitch at 20 mph. The satnav is more accurate, as it is determined not be the speedometer but by GPS. If cars behind move up or if cars in front accelerate away then they are doing over 20. As at yesterday, we believe that: 

• 23 per cent are travelling at 20. This percentage may be exaggerated by two factors: first, some of these having joined from a junction will be 'stuck' behind us without the ability to accelerate if they wished to. Secondly, the car immediately in front may wish to exceed 20 but could be 'caught' behind someone farther on at 20.

• 77 per cent exceed 20, though we cannot tell by how much. Remember that their speedometers may not be accurate and that the sample is lower than in 1. above. 

In dense urban areas with multiple traffic lights you probably see little difference in travel time. Hereabouts, things are different. We'd suggest that at least three quarters of motorists are not yet used to the new blanket limit.