One in nine secondary schools in Wales is now classed as "red". It's just a pity one of them is ours.
It's going to get worse before it gets better. This is the only conclusion regarding the unnerving rating given to Ysgol Brynhyfryd in today's Welsh government school categorisation. On a scale of green-yellow-amber-red, Brynhyfryd slipped from "amber" to "red". This doesn't paint the full picture because Brynhyfryd still manages a good set of exam results but it's the headline measure: it will be the colour that parents will consider first.
Categorisation reflects a number of rubrics. It results in an attributed "support category"—it means Brynhyfryd will need the greatest level of support and, maybe, that's no bad thing: it recognises Brynhyfryd's in a bad place and, presumably, will be given the resources it needs to realign its trajectory. The "support" component was as much the result of the local education authority and the regional school improvement body's assessments. The improvement body's called Y Gwasanaeth Effeithiolrwydd a Gwella Ysgolion Gogledd Cymru (GwE). It's increasingly important as it works in the background almost unbeknown to parents. It's led by Huw Foster Evans, once head of Ysgol Morgan Llwyd in Wrecsam and a former resident of Clocaenog. The former head at Brynhyfryd, Eleri Jones, was once seconded to GwE. GwE has job titles such as Senior Challenge Adviser.
Is "red" where the school should be?
A dozen ago, it was unthinkable to place Brynhyfryd in the same category as Ysgol Blessed Edward Jones or Holywell High or John Summers High. 10 years ago, there was a big announcement: Brynhyfryd was in the top 50 secondary schools in the UK. How the mighty fall. Yet, even then, there were signs of complacency. Even under the transformational leadership of John Ambrose there were signs that the school had it made with its decent catchment.
So, what's the school doing about it?
In November, the governors appointed a new headteacher, Geraint Parry. Before Brynhyfryd, Parry managed to turn around two sink schools in Birkenhead, both part of an academy, so the chatter would suggest. Compared to Penbedw, Brynhyfryd must seem like a stroll in the park. At least we trust it will be—but it may not be that simple.
There are already tangible post-Parry changes. An important one, from this month, is his senior leadership team. Parry has redrawn their job roles & descriptions and reduced its number from six to five. Out goes deputy Eryl Evans (from September 2015, a reluctant acting head, as no one else stepped up—and he stated that he was looking forward to relinquishing that post upon the new head's appointment) who, after 16 years, left voluntarily this month. Gwawr Jones was tipped as the single deputy but this went to the relatively new appointment but less popular John Millington.
Out also is Linda Cooledge (an assistant head). She left this month. Cooledge was unable to reapply for any of the posts, as these were all Welsh language essential. The team has always had a strong Welsh bias. An all-Welsh speaking school leadership will strengthen its position in delivering education and the whole school ethos & culture through the medium of Welsh… or it will reinforce the perception that the school cares less about English as a medium. Take your pick. Cooledge had previously been responsible for the successful introduction at the school of the Welsh Baccalaureate and in order to do so had trodden on toes—and hence wasn't always popular.
Changes at SLT level and the school's forward plan can affect the categorisation support component and therefore its colour category. Parry's not been in post long enough for these or any other changes to make a difference for 2016.
Other Changes
No learner is allowed in the buildings before 8.45 a.m. This has resulted in loiterers on the rear field, some of whom are smoking. Parry has also designated entrances for specific year groups. They're stationed by classroom teachers who turn pupils away if they aren't the right age. School registration is then undertake by year groups rather than in form teachers' own classes, to give each head of year a chance to be everywhere at once.
Parry has also begun asserting his authority with pupils—there've been a high proportion of exclusions—and teachers themselves. Classroom teachers can be a prickly bunch and there is an undercurrent but Parry needs to strike the correct balance between control and keeping teachers on side.
Remember Parry's academy background. As an academy head, he's used to swift, decisive action and academy heads don't need to trouble to consider their staff's feelings too greatly, if they choose not to. Academy heads are all powerful. There's no consensus and there's no traditional governors overseeing matters (there is a board but they're more interested in results & profits). In short, Parry must have been used to getting his own way.
Where should Brynhyfryd be?
Given its former position, green or "highly effective", without doubt. I think, however, the school will need to manage our expectation. The reality is that the school has perhaps sunken so low that it may now never reach its previous zenith, not in a generation. "Yellow" may be the stopping off point. Yellow means "an effective school".
Yellow may be enough but it doesn't reflect Brynhyfryd's former status. Brynhyfryd was once comparable with the Alun High in Yr Wyddgrug/Mold. And Brynhyfryd's catchment is still good. The low proportion of pupils with free school meals is testament to that and this is a good proxy for prosperity. Brynhyfryd has the third lowest percentage of pupils receiving FSMs out of the north east Wales' 31 secondaries. Virtually all schools with such a small proportion of pupils having FSMs are yellow or green.
What about attainment?
Table 3: Comparison of Brynhyfryd's 2015 GCSE passes A*-C by subject. Brynhyfryd did better than Denbighshire in general and nationally. Brynhyfryd was on par within the family of comparable schools
The irony is that Brynhyfryd's results and expectations are still good. Some have declined, admittedly, and some are a cause of concern. It is interesting to compare "red" Brynhyfryd's GCSE results with those at "yellow" Denbigh High and there is little doubt which is the better school. The trend at Denbigh High is up, though. It is nevertheless unlikely that it will ever reach let alone exceed Brynhyfryd. Yet, Denbigh is "effective" and Brynhyfryd is "in need of the greatest improvement". The number of Dinbych pupils commuting to Brynhyfryd is currently much lower.
What does this mean for Rhuthun/Ruthin?
Actually, quite a lot. There are several reasons why Rhuthun is prosperous, one of which was the standing of its state secondary. Since the mid-1980s, it was one of the driving forces that resulted in relative wealth coming in to the area, as parents sought out the town over others in order to be within the school's catchment. This has had a disproportionately positive effect on the town's economy. It affects housing policy and prices. It generates a feeling of well-being.
There is evidence that families are now eschewing Rhuthun when considering where to live and this is most evident in the large family home sector, with a high proportion on the market but very little interest, let alone movement.
Table 1: schools in north east Wales ranked by 2016 categorisation and comparing 2015's. FSM = percentage of pupils entitled to free school meals. Assessment = the blog author's perception of where each should be
It's going to get worse before it gets better. This is the only conclusion regarding the unnerving rating given to Ysgol Brynhyfryd in today's Welsh government school categorisation. On a scale of green-yellow-amber-red, Brynhyfryd slipped from "amber" to "red". This doesn't paint the full picture because Brynhyfryd still manages a good set of exam results but it's the headline measure: it will be the colour that parents will consider first.
Categorisation reflects a number of rubrics. It results in an attributed "support category"—it means Brynhyfryd will need the greatest level of support and, maybe, that's no bad thing: it recognises Brynhyfryd's in a bad place and, presumably, will be given the resources it needs to realign its trajectory. The "support" component was as much the result of the local education authority and the regional school improvement body's assessments. The improvement body's called Y Gwasanaeth Effeithiolrwydd a Gwella Ysgolion Gogledd Cymru (GwE). It's increasingly important as it works in the background almost unbeknown to parents. It's led by Huw Foster Evans, once head of Ysgol Morgan Llwyd in Wrecsam and a former resident of Clocaenog. The former head at Brynhyfryd, Eleri Jones, was once seconded to GwE. GwE has job titles such as Senior Challenge Adviser.
Is "red" where the school should be?
A dozen ago, it was unthinkable to place Brynhyfryd in the same category as Ysgol Blessed Edward Jones or Holywell High or John Summers High. 10 years ago, there was a big announcement: Brynhyfryd was in the top 50 secondary schools in the UK. How the mighty fall. Yet, even then, there were signs of complacency. Even under the transformational leadership of John Ambrose there were signs that the school had it made with its decent catchment.
So, what's the school doing about it?
In November, the governors appointed a new headteacher, Geraint Parry. Before Brynhyfryd, Parry managed to turn around two sink schools in Birkenhead, both part of an academy, so the chatter would suggest. Compared to Penbedw, Brynhyfryd must seem like a stroll in the park. At least we trust it will be—but it may not be that simple.
There are already tangible post-Parry changes. An important one, from this month, is his senior leadership team. Parry has redrawn their job roles & descriptions and reduced its number from six to five. Out goes deputy Eryl Evans (from September 2015, a reluctant acting head, as no one else stepped up—and he stated that he was looking forward to relinquishing that post upon the new head's appointment) who, after 16 years, left voluntarily this month. Gwawr Jones was tipped as the single deputy but this went to the relatively new appointment but less popular John Millington.
Out also is Linda Cooledge (an assistant head). She left this month. Cooledge was unable to reapply for any of the posts, as these were all Welsh language essential. The team has always had a strong Welsh bias. An all-Welsh speaking school leadership will strengthen its position in delivering education and the whole school ethos & culture through the medium of Welsh… or it will reinforce the perception that the school cares less about English as a medium. Take your pick. Cooledge had previously been responsible for the successful introduction at the school of the Welsh Baccalaureate and in order to do so had trodden on toes—and hence wasn't always popular.
Changes at SLT level and the school's forward plan can affect the categorisation support component and therefore its colour category. Parry's not been in post long enough for these or any other changes to make a difference for 2016.
Other Changes
No learner is allowed in the buildings before 8.45 a.m. This has resulted in loiterers on the rear field, some of whom are smoking. Parry has also designated entrances for specific year groups. They're stationed by classroom teachers who turn pupils away if they aren't the right age. School registration is then undertake by year groups rather than in form teachers' own classes, to give each head of year a chance to be everywhere at once.
Parry has also begun asserting his authority with pupils—there've been a high proportion of exclusions—and teachers themselves. Classroom teachers can be a prickly bunch and there is an undercurrent but Parry needs to strike the correct balance between control and keeping teachers on side.
Remember Parry's academy background. As an academy head, he's used to swift, decisive action and academy heads don't need to trouble to consider their staff's feelings too greatly, if they choose not to. Academy heads are all powerful. There's no consensus and there's no traditional governors overseeing matters (there is a board but they're more interested in results & profits). In short, Parry must have been used to getting his own way.
Where should Brynhyfryd be?
Given its former position, green or "highly effective", without doubt. I think, however, the school will need to manage our expectation. The reality is that the school has perhaps sunken so low that it may now never reach its previous zenith, not in a generation. "Yellow" may be the stopping off point. Yellow means "an effective school".
Table 2: schools in north east Wales ranked by the percentage entitled to free school meals, lowest first, with their corresponding 2016 categorisation. In general, there is a correlation between FSM and support categorisation
Yellow may be enough but it doesn't reflect Brynhyfryd's former status. Brynhyfryd was once comparable with the Alun High in Yr Wyddgrug/Mold. And Brynhyfryd's catchment is still good. The low proportion of pupils with free school meals is testament to that and this is a good proxy for prosperity. Brynhyfryd has the third lowest percentage of pupils receiving FSMs out of the north east Wales' 31 secondaries. Virtually all schools with such a small proportion of pupils having FSMs are yellow or green.
What about attainment?
The irony is that Brynhyfryd's results and expectations are still good. Some have declined, admittedly, and some are a cause of concern. It is interesting to compare "red" Brynhyfryd's GCSE results with those at "yellow" Denbigh High and there is little doubt which is the better school. The trend at Denbigh High is up, though. It is nevertheless unlikely that it will ever reach let alone exceed Brynhyfryd. Yet, Denbigh is "effective" and Brynhyfryd is "in need of the greatest improvement". The number of Dinbych pupils commuting to Brynhyfryd is currently much lower.
Table 4: Percentage achieving GCSE grades A*-C. Even though Brynhyfryd's first language Welsh has declined markedly, it has been consistently above those at Glan Clwyd. From 2010, Glan Clwyd's English results overtook Brynhyfryd's. Brynhyfryd's maths have improved then worsened. Glan Clwyd's science results are consistently better than Brynhyfryd's. The real stories are (a) strong performances by Mold Alun; and (b) considerable improvement at Denbigh High
Actually, quite a lot. There are several reasons why Rhuthun is prosperous, one of which was the standing of its state secondary. Since the mid-1980s, it was one of the driving forces that resulted in relative wealth coming in to the area, as parents sought out the town over others in order to be within the school's catchment. This has had a disproportionately positive effect on the town's economy. It affects housing policy and prices. It generates a feeling of well-being.
There is evidence that families are now eschewing Rhuthun when considering where to live and this is most evident in the large family home sector, with a high proportion on the market but very little interest, let alone movement.