Clwyd East, James Davies and 20 mph

Did you receive two leaflets and a 20 mph survey last week from Dr James Davies MP? Davies is the sitting MP for Clwyd North (Y Rhyl, Prestatyn, Dinbych). 

It seems that traffic speeds in Wales have reduced but in our view compliance at 20 mph is still quite low. Recent journeys suggest only one in 10 motorists stick to the limit. Over a longer period, we estimate that this is two in 10. This is not scientific but simply based on our sticking to 20 and observing the behaviour of other drivers: those vehicles accelerating towards us in a 20 zone from the rear, or those moving away in front.

Davies is also the Conservative candidate for our new Westminster parliamentary constituency of Clwyd East. Yes, that'll be us, alongside Prestatyn, Yr Wyddgrug/Mold, Treffynnon/Holywell and Llangollen.

Predictions suggest that were there to be an election next Thursday, in the new Clwyd East, Davies would be unseated. The Electoral Calculus website predicts that the new Clwyd East constituency will comfortably become Labour (with 48 per cent of the vote). There are two reasons for this. First, the Delyn part of Clwyd East has previously been resolutely Labour. This even though the 2019 general election returned a Conservative, now independent. Secondly, there is a general swing to the left anticipated. 

Davies's main leaflet majors on 20 mph. Has the Conservative party alighted upon a secret weapon? We know that 20 mph has proven to be highly unpopular among motorists. The danger is that we may have forgotten 20 mph by the time of a general election. Or will any ire regarding 20 be trumped by other issues? 

20 mph is not a Westminster government issue. Bae Caerdydd is responsible for road traffic matters. But, strange things can happen in politics. A sure-fire overturning of former PM Boris Johnson's Conservative Uxbridge seat was stumped by what was reported as the motoring lobby's discontent at the Labour mayor's extension of London's low emission zone to outer London. The irony was that ULEZ was mayor Johnson's policy...

There is something very interesting within the Davies leaflet's 20 mph survey, though. Question 3 asks, 'If the Welsh government continue[s] to refuse to reverse this [20 mph] policy, do you think the UK government should intervene.

Can it do that? If it did, what sort of precedent would that set? How would this impact on the sovereignty of the Welsh government? I suspect that there would be plenty of people who might wish the UK government would intervene. Whether these people would lend their votes to Davies remains to be seen.