The first minister outlined the traffic light system today, indicating that there may be some hope, as we consider the *possibility* of the first faltering steps back to some kind of normality. No dates. No schools. A different message than across Offa's Dyke.
One of the journalist present commented that "The journey has moved on without the Welsh government". This was an interesting statement. What he meant was, lockdown or no, the general public is now bending the rules and the Welsh government hasn't even caught up. The perceptive journo may have it right: it's noticeable on the streets.
But, can this be substantiated? First, the anecdotal evidence.
If you're in and around town, it's obvious in Rhuthun/Ruthin that there's more people wandering around town, even before the Welsh government's greater freedom announced from May 11th. There's also greater traffic during the day, which is a mixture of local and trunk. This has drifted upwards over the last fortnight to three weeks. Life at the beginning of lockdown was so quiet that it was very noticeable. Because of this, it's also striking that there are now many more car journeys than at the beginning of lockdown. And, at the very end of April, in the evening, I could've moved my mattress onto the estate road where I live and not seen a car till after 7am the following morning. Three weeks later and I would be squashed a dozen times over.
Now, the facts.
Google mobility reports for Denbighshire (the best data we have) indicate that from April 5th to May 7th that:
We are shopping for groceries and for pharmaceuticals more often (above). In early April, the number of trips to groceries and pharmacies was 42 per cent below the normal baseline. A month later, and this was just nine per cent below.
The trend is also similar for visiting open spaces, above. Although between 33 and 52 per cent below the usual baseline, it's been relatively consistent at about 45 per cent under. At the end of May, shot to –11. This before the Welsh government allowed outdoor exercise on multiple occasions.
As regards traffic in Rhuthun, afternoon peak volumes on the A494 for the last week of April to the second week of May showed a 28 per cent increase. Local traffic within Rhuthun on the A494 increased by about two-thirds.
The interesting thing about the afternoon peak, though, is it has a reduced span compared to usual. In pre-coronavirus times, there would still be significant volumes arriving in Rhuthun as late as 6.30 to 7pm, having returned from far afield. In recent weeks, though traffic levels have increased, at present the duration of the afternoon peak is shorter; it tails off quicker.
We hear this evening the the R rate has increased from between –0.6 & –0.9 to between –0.7 & –1.0. Is this something to do with the UK bending its own rules, I wonder.
Well Street at the start of general lockdown
One of the journalist present commented that "The journey has moved on without the Welsh government". This was an interesting statement. What he meant was, lockdown or no, the general public is now bending the rules and the Welsh government hasn't even caught up. The perceptive journo may have it right: it's noticeable on the streets.
But, can this be substantiated? First, the anecdotal evidence.
If you're in and around town, it's obvious in Rhuthun/Ruthin that there's more people wandering around town, even before the Welsh government's greater freedom announced from May 11th. There's also greater traffic during the day, which is a mixture of local and trunk. This has drifted upwards over the last fortnight to three weeks. Life at the beginning of lockdown was so quiet that it was very noticeable. Because of this, it's also striking that there are now many more car journeys than at the beginning of lockdown. And, at the very end of April, in the evening, I could've moved my mattress onto the estate road where I live and not seen a car till after 7am the following morning. Three weeks later and I would be squashed a dozen times over.
Now, the facts.
Visits for groceries and to pharmacies between April 5th and May 7th, 2020 inclusive, with trend
Google mobility reports for Denbighshire (the best data we have) indicate that from April 5th to May 7th that:
Visits to open spaces between April 5th and May 7th, 2020 inclusive, with trend. This is during the period when we were allowed a single period of exercise
The trend is also similar for visiting open spaces, above. Although between 33 and 52 per cent below the usual baseline, it's been relatively consistent at about 45 per cent under. At the end of May, shot to –11. This before the Welsh government allowed outdoor exercise on multiple occasions.
Traffic volumes per day in the afternoon peak per hour for the last week in April and the first two weeks of May 2020
The interesting thing about the afternoon peak, though, is it has a reduced span compared to usual. In pre-coronavirus times, there would still be significant volumes arriving in Rhuthun as late as 6.30 to 7pm, having returned from far afield. In recent weeks, though traffic levels have increased, at present the duration of the afternoon peak is shorter; it tails off quicker.
We hear this evening the the R rate has increased from between –0.6 & –0.9 to between –0.7 & –1.0. Is this something to do with the UK bending its own rules, I wonder.