The local housing market remains dire. 2013 was a particularly difficult year at the higher end, though better at the lower. In fact, overall, 2013 sales were actually almost at an average level and higher than both 2011 and 2012. 2014 started better and local estate agents became optimistic that the market had recovered without the overblown nature of London and the south of England.
The truth, however, was much different. 2014 sales dipped below the 2013 level and in the last 10 years, only 2011 and the chronic 2008 were lower.
After the early summer’s more stringent rules about mortgage lending—when financiers pried into the most detailed elements of your private life (e.g. for women, their spend at the beauty salon; for men, how much they spend to keep their mistress)—the market closed quicker than the Horseshoe Pass in snow. Nationally, November & December were actually 25 per cent down on the same period in 2013, this thanks largely to mortgage refusals.
The exception during 2014 was some activity at the lower end of the scale. Indeed, sales in and around Rhuthun/Ruthin of cheaper homes in 2014 were up 20-25 per cent on 2013. There followed enthusiasm that low end sales would soon feed into a renewed interest in higher end properties... but this turned out to be nothing but fantasy. The bottom end sales were stimulated by the burgeoning buy-to-let market and even here, Rhuthun is soon expected to run dry of suitable rental propoerties.
At least matters were a little better in town compared to Rhuthun's neighbouring villages. The further south or west from Rhuthun, the less interest there appeared. In 2012 and 2013, Gwyddelwern and Clawddnewydd proved this point forcefully. Community leaders in Clawdd pointed to a full roll at the nearby primary school as evidence of young people returning to the area. Yet, at one point, it seemed that every second property in Clawdd was for sale, with little actual movement. Three bed town terraces (e.g. Mwrog Street) were changing hands for about the price of three bed detached houses or bungalows with land, in Clawdd. It was clear that Mwrog Street with its attendant traffic and even possible flood risks (as in November 2012) was preferable than country living with its more pleasant environment. Yet, 2014 was a better year for Clawddnewydd, with something of a mini-surge.
In Rhuthun, it was the troubled "executive" end of the spectrum that saw so few sales. Here is one example of a non-mover:
This relatively new build is on Ruthin School's old tennis courts at the dead end of Wern Uchaf on land sold by the school to fund its own building programme. It's a very substantial property. It has been on the market for two years. It boasts not one but two en suites plus family bathroom and downstairs cloakroom (four lavatories in all—imagine the cleaning required). The price has remained constant during this time, even though the occupiers seem open to offers. In addition to Beresford Adams, the occupiers this year joined an internet provider based in Southend-on-Sea. These days, the role of the local agent is diminished. It's been 10 years since the publication of properties for sale in the then Vale Advertiser would excite phone calls the following morning. Everyone window shops online. Visitors to agents' premises nowadays tend to be from anxious vendors rather than eager buyers. And in late January or early February yet another UK internet property site launches, telling its own tail.
And local agents have also been responsible for house price inflation and in doing so have shot themselves in their collective feet. Some accuse Beresford Adams of irresponsible pricing while others point the finger at Cavendish Ikin. The fact remains that it is in both agents' interest (and newcomer Williams Estates) to overstate local prices. Thanks to them, we have reached the point where the upper market is in stalemate such that those who want or need to relocate or downsize cannot do so.
Here's another example:
This property's also been on the market for almost two years. It's on the premier Parc Brynhyfryd development. It started life in April 2013 with Cavendish Ikin at £339,500 and a year ago subsequently swapped to Beresford Adams, asking £330,000 and is now with Williams Estates. In terms of agents, there’s now nowhere else for the owner to go (locally) unless you count agricultural specialist Clough & Co, now being run from their Dinbych rather than Rhuthun office. In fairness, she did drop the asking price by £5,000 under Beresford Adams but at £325,000 it's way overpriced. The vendor is understood to have refused several offers, all lower of course. Not that she's necessarily in much of a hurry but if you're marketing your home then why bother if you don't take a pragmatic approach.
And why would you invest £325,000 in an admittedly up together house when around the corner there's been a larger yet cheaper property on the market for about a year:
This example is currently pitched at £290,000. There are fairly tragic circumstances surrounding the sale. It initially came on the market in the early spring at £310,000. Admittedly, it needs some TLC having been the abode of an older man who has been unable or unwilling to invest in it but on sheer size this seems a better deal. Unlike the £325,000 example, this has views to the Clwydian Hills and is not surrounded, although on Ffordd Cunedda it does back on the bus park at Ysgol Brynhyfryd (and this and especially its neighbours further along now have the new illumined outdoor pitches with which to contend). The real problems here, though, are the trees at the rear, including one outside any new owners' control within Ysgol Brynhyfrd's grounds and, worse still, the 24 hour rattle of the swimming pool filtration unit.
Cost of similar house Parc Brynhfryd in 1997 = £115,00; in 2000 = £128,000; and in 2006 = £279,950
Of course, we cannot solely blame the estate agents for the situation in which Rhuthun finds itself. It is their unrealistic pricing coupled with external factors that continue to cause problems:
This is advertised erroneously as a four- when it really is a five-bed detached. Little defendable space at the front (it's a "town house" right on the road) but otherwise a bargain at a full £100,000 cheaper than the four bed offering on Parc Brynhyfryd. Then again, when comparing the two locations, would you really care to live on Glasdir? Looking ahead 20 years, will this simply become a sink estate? No pun intended. There are between 30 and 40 housing association homes of various sizes on the site. Then again, is the £100,000 justified for Rhuthun's premier housing estate?
Note also that substantial, Pevsner-reviewed Coetmor at the corner of Jumbo Hill has finally sold this autumn. It, too, was on the market for some two years and sold for £455,000.
Value of Coetmoo in April 1997 = £197,000
One final consequence of a prolonged stagnant market is the oversupply of estate agents themselves. Rhuthun has traditionally managed to sustain three of them (aside from specialist Clough & Co) and I am sure both Bereford Adams and Cavnendigh Ikin were disappointed to see expansionist Williams Estates bring the number back up to three in 2013. Is there really enough business for all of them? Longstanding Dodds closed in Rhuthun as in Dinbych; and Key Properties and Molyneux came and went in an instant, both before Williams.
Finally, what of new housing? There's nothing going on at Glasdir, even though the developer could easily have recommenced in the summer of 2014 to have something ready to coincide with the completion of the flood defences. It seems they have lost heart yet there are reports they will start afresh in 2015. Even so, Glasdir remains an unknown quantity for the future but what effect will the shortage of new builds have on the existing supply of second hand housing?
Meanwhile, there are four interesting projects. Two high-end units are on Greenfield Road. In the 1930s to 1950s, Greenfield Road and its culs-de-sac were once the doyen of Rhuthun. One is a new build and the other a heavy refurbishment & extension. Both recreate and then exceed the 1930s era. The one on the left, built to order, is so obviously Urbanbuild but to a more human scale & design than those in Llanbedr. With its hip roof, it's clearly inspired by the 1930s-40s and takes its cue from the original property on its right, Maes y Coed, under refurbishment, rebuild & expansion by an Yr Wyddgrug/Mold-based builder (who are also renovating a similar property on Denbigh Road following a house fire). Maes y Coed, right, sold for £300,000 in 2013 with its land. Not the first time we've seen properties squeezed into existing gardens along Greenfield Road.
And then there's Ty Newydd, Llanfwrog. This was on the market for about two years and couldn't sell, even with planning permission for an adjacent house on its 3½-acres-plus land. In spite of its location and land, it was only a two-bed property. It went in autumn 2014 and its asking price had reduced to £335,000. It was demolished in December 2014 to be replaced by a four-bed detached under construction. It was a shame to see such an old cottage disappear. It was said to date from the 18th century.
Finally, this is squeezed in along Llanfair Road. It's a substantial four-bed property for Turner Bros (so don't expect a guide price from them). It's particularly impressive from the rear elevation. It's also taking a long time to build, having been in a similar state now for almost six months.Of course, Turner will wait till he has a buyer to finish and fit out the internals. You won't get that from Taylor Wimpey.
The truth, however, was much different. 2014 sales dipped below the 2013 level and in the last 10 years, only 2011 and the chronic 2008 were lower.
After the early summer’s more stringent rules about mortgage lending—when financiers pried into the most detailed elements of your private life (e.g. for women, their spend at the beauty salon; for men, how much they spend to keep their mistress)—the market closed quicker than the Horseshoe Pass in snow. Nationally, November & December were actually 25 per cent down on the same period in 2013, this thanks largely to mortgage refusals.
The exception during 2014 was some activity at the lower end of the scale. Indeed, sales in and around Rhuthun/Ruthin of cheaper homes in 2014 were up 20-25 per cent on 2013. There followed enthusiasm that low end sales would soon feed into a renewed interest in higher end properties... but this turned out to be nothing but fantasy. The bottom end sales were stimulated by the burgeoning buy-to-let market and even here, Rhuthun is soon expected to run dry of suitable rental propoerties.
At least matters were a little better in town compared to Rhuthun's neighbouring villages. The further south or west from Rhuthun, the less interest there appeared. In 2012 and 2013, Gwyddelwern and Clawddnewydd proved this point forcefully. Community leaders in Clawdd pointed to a full roll at the nearby primary school as evidence of young people returning to the area. Yet, at one point, it seemed that every second property in Clawdd was for sale, with little actual movement. Three bed town terraces (e.g. Mwrog Street) were changing hands for about the price of three bed detached houses or bungalows with land, in Clawdd. It was clear that Mwrog Street with its attendant traffic and even possible flood risks (as in November 2012) was preferable than country living with its more pleasant environment. Yet, 2014 was a better year for Clawddnewydd, with something of a mini-surge.
In Rhuthun, it was the troubled "executive" end of the spectrum that saw so few sales. Here is one example of a non-mover:
Here's another example:
And why would you invest £325,000 in an admittedly up together house when around the corner there's been a larger yet cheaper property on the market for about a year:
Cost of similar house Parc Brynhfryd in 1997 = £115,00; in 2000 = £128,000; and in 2006 = £279,950
Of course, we cannot solely blame the estate agents for the situation in which Rhuthun finds itself. It is their unrealistic pricing coupled with external factors that continue to cause problems:
- The price of fuel and the time to commute. Yr Wyddgrug/Mold seems to be about as far west as English commuters in search of more reasonable prices are now prepared to move
- Unrealistic stamp duty on high-end properties. Who knows whether the reforms just announced will be enough to motivate the market
- A reduction in the pool of professional & managerial jobs traditionally the reserve for higher priced properties at the three councils of Denbighshire, Flintshire and Wrecsam. This will only worsen in 2015 and beyond as mergers & cuts will reduce the reservoir still further and we may even see the downgrading or even closure of County Hall. Denbighshire, for example, hasn't recruited senior positions externally for some time. Flintshire seems in a terrible mess
- A lack of other suitably well-paid or professional employment within the local area
- An over-supply of larger properties as a proportion of the housing stock. Aside from the Walled City of Glasdir, most housing post Bro Deg (from c. 1987) was four bed and there are significant numbers of them: Bryn Eryl, Parc Brynhyfryd, Maes Hyfryd, Wern Uchaf...
- Related to the above, a likely "flood" of higher-end properties expected to hit the market in the coming few years, as people who have occupied Bryn Eryl and Parc Brynhyfryd developments (and the latter (and larger) age range in the Bro Deg) have been in situ for at least 20 years and with children flown, are looking to downsize, skewing the supply side in the process
- The local secondary being far less attractive than it was 20 or even 30 years ago. People looking to relocate to a catchment with a good school are likely to look elsewhere.
Note also that substantial, Pevsner-reviewed Coetmor at the corner of Jumbo Hill has finally sold this autumn. It, too, was on the market for some two years and sold for £455,000.
One final consequence of a prolonged stagnant market is the oversupply of estate agents themselves. Rhuthun has traditionally managed to sustain three of them (aside from specialist Clough & Co) and I am sure both Bereford Adams and Cavnendigh Ikin were disappointed to see expansionist Williams Estates bring the number back up to three in 2013. Is there really enough business for all of them? Longstanding Dodds closed in Rhuthun as in Dinbych; and Key Properties and Molyneux came and went in an instant, both before Williams.
Finally, what of new housing? There's nothing going on at Glasdir, even though the developer could easily have recommenced in the summer of 2014 to have something ready to coincide with the completion of the flood defences. It seems they have lost heart yet there are reports they will start afresh in 2015. Even so, Glasdir remains an unknown quantity for the future but what effect will the shortage of new builds have on the existing supply of second hand housing?
Meanwhile, there are four interesting projects. Two high-end units are on Greenfield Road. In the 1930s to 1950s, Greenfield Road and its culs-de-sac were once the doyen of Rhuthun. One is a new build and the other a heavy refurbishment & extension. Both recreate and then exceed the 1930s era. The one on the left, built to order, is so obviously Urbanbuild but to a more human scale & design than those in Llanbedr. With its hip roof, it's clearly inspired by the 1930s-40s and takes its cue from the original property on its right, Maes y Coed, under refurbishment, rebuild & expansion by an Yr Wyddgrug/Mold-based builder (who are also renovating a similar property on Denbigh Road following a house fire). Maes y Coed, right, sold for £300,000 in 2013 with its land. Not the first time we've seen properties squeezed into existing gardens along Greenfield Road.
Finally, this is squeezed in along Llanfair Road. It's a substantial four-bed property for Turner Bros (so don't expect a guide price from them). It's particularly impressive from the rear elevation. It's also taking a long time to build, having been in a similar state now for almost six months.Of course, Turner will wait till he has a buyer to finish and fit out the internals. You won't get that from Taylor Wimpey.