Never say Never...

… or Tesco Five Years on (4—final)…
… or How I Remember Counting Things for this Blog…
… or Saying it Like it Is…
… or Rhuthun's Perfect Storm

As I walked down from the Square on Saturday afternoon, I pondered why I saw just two other shoppers and three parked cars on lower Well Street. Afterwards, I wandered over to Tesco. Passing B&M, there were cars queuing on Station Road trying to get a space in the otherwise crammed parking ground. At Tesco, there were only 28 free spaces (two thanks to poorly parked cars) and within, there were more than 160 shoppers with others coming & going.

And they say that Tesco has no effect on town centres.

That said, there were the usual town centre shops that had closed on Saturday afternoon. Possibly, therefore, a case of chicken & egg. No point in opening because the town is quiet; or the town is empty so there's no point in opening. Shut were:

• The laundry & Ruthin IT Centre at the junction of Mwrog Street & Clwyd Street;


• Castle Park Café, Goble's, Finns (though adjoining J Khan's takeaway pizzeria was open);


• Fineline, Eagle's Bakery, the new house clearance shop at the junction of Clwyd Street & Upper Clwyd Street;


• Fairie Pirates/Hardly Nickels, Alton Murphy, & Mia Florists;


• St Kentigern, Crown House, Santander, Dal Chini, First House, the Well Street Clinic, Norma Elizabeth, the Health Food Shop, W & G Jones café and butcher and the Garment Spa; and


• All the health & beauty emporia and hairdressers bar one for women and one for men.

To balance things up a little, it's appropriate now to make mention of two recently opened town centre shops. One is in the small unit next to Harris Toys (formerly Y Shop), selling an attractively laid out assortment of quality-looking antiques. The same unit's been open as such before, 12 months ago. This was open on Saturday afternoon. The other's the aforesaid house clearance shop, fittingly called Siop Ail-law, in the former Robbin's/Studio 21 further up Clwyd Street.

But the "Saturday Effect" is not just confined to Rhuthun/Ruthin. By counting things, my own summer research into mid-Wales market towns indicated that Saturday afternoons are completely flat. Yet, there will be many readers who will recall those buoyant Saturday afternoons of the 1960s and 1970s who will know how different things were.

Where do people shop on Saturday afternoons these days? One answer, as above, is Tesco. Another is large cities like Lerpwl/Liverpool. I wasn't in Lerpwl on Saturday afternoon but I did go there last week. It was a cultural rather than shopping visit. Rest assured, I bought nothing other than two magazines and a specialist newspaper that are unavailable in Rhuthun. Yes, I could order them here and, yes, fair play, the magazine stock in Castle Bell newsagents has improved considerably in recent months such that it is now better than Tesco's (as it should be) or Bridge Services (sadly no longer renowned for its rich variety of titles).

My guess is that Lerpwl would've been crowded. If people aren't attracted away from small towns to supermarkets or edge-of-town retail parks, they gravitate to shopping areas such as Liverpool ONE, a kind of Eagles' Meadow on steroids. There was not one empty unit in either Liverpool ONE or the adjacent city centre proper. You had to get to the far extremities such as Ranelagh or Renshaw Streets to find vacancies: the huge Lewis store (not to be confused with the John Lewis Partnership) that closed in 2010 remains unoccupied. It finds itself at the wrong end of town from Liverpool ONE. Empty are the former Rapid Hardware buildings that moved to the old John Lewis building when John Lewis went to L1.

Yet, even along Bold Street, that attractive time warp of smaller, indie shops, that beacon of trade that like Rhuthun bucks the homogeneity of our high streets, there's now a Tesco Express at the top. Even here.

In the comment in this week's Denbighshire Free Press, the editor wonders what might become of Llangollen should the recently submitted supermarket planning permission be granted. He compares Llangollen's chances of survival to post-Tesco Rhuthun. Llangollen is somewhat different to Rhuthun but comparison is still valid. Interestingly, the editor wonders whether Rhuthun's fate actually results from Tesco or from the current depression. He remains undecided.

He could do worse than visit this blogsite for, right from day one, its very reason was to measure whether Tesco had an appreciable effect on the town. We've monitored the oscillations within the town centre ever since. Things were OK before Tesco then they dipped. There followed a short-lived blossoming before things dipped again.

To coincide with Tesco's fifth anniversary, we've published the results of our own survey into the benefits and disbenefits of Tesco Rhuthun. We asked blog readers some simple questions.

• One was whether Tesco affected the town unfavourably. More than half of all respondents felt that it did. A third felt it didn't.


• We also know from respondents that two thirds felt that there were fewer people in town, following Tesco.


• And we found out that two thirds of respondents visit Tesco regularly. Fewer than half visit the town centre with the same regularity.

The result of Tesco has been a less busy town. If you have pounded the streets of Rhuthun as long as I, you will *know* this is a fact. But it isn't just my view. Ask traders and, to a person, they will agree. And not just traders. The county council's planning committee recognised this in 2007 when it refused Tesco's expansion plans (though these were subsequently overturned by a Caerdydd planning inspector). At the time, Councillor Morfudd Jones stated, "Smaller businesses in Rhuthun are withering. If you go from shop to shop, the story is the same. I think we in Rhuthun can see what a shop like [Tesco's] can do to small businesses in the town."

A councillor now no longer serving said, "All businesses with the exception of two have reported a downturn of 15 to 20 per cent. Two businesses reported a massive drop in footfall of 75 per cent".

What Tesco has done, and Lo-cost before it, is reduce the number of convenience shops in town. There was suddenly less of a reason to go into town regularly to buy everyday convenience goods. Fewer convenience stores have a consequent effect on other shops. We start to see a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In terms of convenience shopping, there's now just one newsagent in town. There are only two butchers. Fruit & veg is absent altogether, aside from a selection at one of the butchers (Reebee's fruit & veg side was an early post-Tesco casualty). You'll find fast moving consumer goods only in both chemists and one price-point variety retailer (Popeye, actually established post-Tesco and even post-B&M).

But the fortunes of high street Wales aren't solely dependent upon whether it has a Tesco breathing down its neck. That's just one element in a perfect storm that also includes:

• Internet trading, pretty much an essential if you want to buy music these days, and it's now possible to buy convenience supermarket-style shopping even from Amazon (though it's yet to turn a profit).


• We've already mentioned out-of-town retailing. This is having such an effect on the typical British high street that multiples are closing shops when their leases fall due, in favour of malls and retail parks. Another self-fulfilling spiral. It's got to the point where landlords are actually offering retailers their premises rent-free to avoid an empty unit that still requires business rates.

It is perhaps as well that the only "mult" (as the sector is often referred to) in Rhuthun town centre is Boot's the Chemist. There's little that can move away out-of-town, though a number of independents have, to Lôn Parcwr, but still trading in Rhuthun (e.g. Lewis Electrics, Uptown Furnishing), noting that Ruthin Décor has recently moved the other way.

Yet, there are still considerable vacancies within the town centre. Rhuthun nevertheless compares to the high street vacancy rate in the UK. The current average high street sees a 14 per cent vacancy rate. In November 2011, Rhuthun's is currently 13 per cent. Because a number of vacant units are very prominent—on the Square, for example—it appears worse than perhaps it is. Looking at British trends, it's sad to say that we can expect this number to go only in one direction. At the coming of Tesco, the vacancy rate was eight per cent. Adjusting this for premises then available for use but now converted to residential and therefore out of scope and the adjusted vacancy rate was equivalent to just six per cent.

It's to everyone's credit that there remains a good mass of trading units. To me, this is a paradox. Compare Rhuthun to Rhuddlan. The towns are broadly the same size. Rhuddlan is closer to a larger town and very close to a retail park and these are major differences. Rhuddlan supports 35 shops and businesses, aside from its garage. This has changed little since the Rhuddlan retail park. There remain a couple of vacancies. Adjusting the figure for Rhuthun's slightly higher population and the number of shops at Rhuddlan would be at 41.

Rhuthun currently supports 109 open trading units, three times the number in Rhuddlan. This is aside from supermarkets, the fringe-of-town large price-point variety retailer (B&M), garages, banks and offices. That number has decreased in the last 30 years, as some premises have converted to residential use, including some quite recently. Anyway, that's a difference of 74 open units (or 68, when adjusted). Why the larger number in Rhuthun?

This, perhaps, is a legacy of Rhuthun overtrading on the back of a visitor economy that is still visible. You still see visitors wandering the streets of Rhuthun and long may that continue. Future petrol price increases are unlikely to help but even in the 1980s, the tourist market started to fall. Were a town of such architectural significance to be situated in the south of England, it would no doubt be booming. It's as well that we aren't in the vicinity of the south but the effect of where we are can be difficult. And there are some further awkward questions: where, for example, have all the Americans gone? They tend to stick with their favorites (sic) and will stray only as far from Chester along the A55 to Conwy & Caernarfon Castles. And what about the touring coaches? The two are linked. We now get but one summer coach party per week and its sole contribution to the local economy is a spin around the Square. It doesn't even stop any more. We need to add this to the aforementioned perfect storm facing Rhuthun.

Turnover in traders post-Tesco is most marked. Credit where it's due for people having a go but, on past form, trading life isn't easy. As an example, of the 37 new shops that filled vacancies in the first two years of Tesco trading, 27 have closed. We also bade farewell to a further 19 shops in this period. Now, a large number of these premises are recycled into other ventures (sometimes more than once) but the scale and pace must be down to something.

And that pace of change will continue. Dominating the Square and the approach it from Clwyd Street at the moment is a clad Castle Hotel that early in 2012 will become a Wetherspoon's. Our analysis of Yr Wyddgrug/Mold's Wetherspoon's seems to indicate that other pubs are somewhat struggling in the face of JDW.

JD's is the pub equivalent to what the retail trade calls a "category killer". They specialise in cheap drinks and food and in so doing "kill" their competitors to the point where they can no longer trade sustainably. In Rhuthun's case, the competitors are all effectively small businesses. Tied they may be but they are locally run.

But, before we write off Rhuthun, let's not forget that JDW might attract more people and a fresh market back into the town centre. Let's hope so as this may help the town as the depression moves into a slump. The car that takes people away from Rhuthun to work and to shop may yet bring visitors back in, who wish to sample Wetherspoon's. This is no soulless though these days popular edge-of-town Beefeater new-build but a town centre investment.

Are we now reaping the bitter harvest of a society that promotes the unfettered use of the motor car? A car for everyman & woman has promoted consumerism and a loss of local distinctiveness. An otherwise helpful tool now actually dominates our lives. It has transformed Rhuthun into a dormitory town where the link between where we live and where work, shop and play is forever broken. The choice the car brings also causes collateral damage on dying UK high streets and we must add this to the perfect storm affecting Rhuthun and other small market towns.

There are many things that threaten small market towns and we've highlighted some of them here. Some of them are nebulous. One thing that isn't is the effect of Tesco on the town. I hope that through this blog and in this posting this article, I've managed to demonstrate that, post-Tesco, the face of Rhuthun's changed considerably. Some may welcome the change, others not. But change there has been. You can't easily buck the trned of modern capitalism.

• Tesco seems responsible for a hitherto unimaginable churn in businesses in the town centre.


• There's been an increase in empty units, post-Tesco, from eight to 13 per cent. Some of this will be due to factors other than Tesco but post-Tesco footfall decline is a major factor.


• Traders note a reduction in town centre footfall, five years later and also immediately post-Tesco.


• There are markedly fewer convenience shops in the town centre, in a trend that started after Lo-cost but was accelerated post-Tesco.


• Residents now shop regularly at Tesco, a store busy when the town isn't.


• If the blog readers' survey is representative of Rhuthun as a whole, fewer people go into town and fewer people feel that Tesco has made a positive impact on the town than feel the opposite.

This post may be slightly controversial but all it does is say it like it is, from as near a scientific analysis as my meagre resources permit. I'm no stranger to controversy. Regular readers may recall:

• The December 2006 storm where a group of businesses who were trying (unsuccessfully as it turns out) to promote a winter version of Top of Town said in a newspaper, "It’s precisely that type of reporting which [is]… a large part of the problem. Pessimism is our biggest enemy…" We refuted that within hours of it being said.


• Then there was the issue of the butcher. Ooops.


• Remember the straightforward post on council tax that got caught up in all sorts of reader comments that resulted in the mayor trying to straighten things out but (in my view) just complicated matters. The post and its comments were (probably thankfully) gobbled up by Blogger but few seemed to believe it, seeing a conspiracy.


• Then there was the post in praise of the quality of Ysgol Brynhyfryd sixth form that no one seemed to agree with, in spite of the evidence.


• And how dare I blame sixth formers for causing parking issues on streets near the school when it was obviously everyone else's fault.



• More recently, there was the whole Faerie Pirates/Hardly Nickels purple shop thing.


• Remember the inappropriate comments about the head of Ruthin School and sometimes offensive comments about one of your fellow commenters & his wife? It was this that started the first bout of more prolonged comment moderation. Moderation's been on and off ever since.

Indeed, moderation is on at the moment. It's the small minority of idiotic comments that, for me, more than anything else, spoil the enjoyment of this blog. It's raison d'être was the effect of Tesco on the town and, by now, it's job is done. But it's the inappropriate comments that have killed this blog, in two ways:

• It means the blog is less spontaneous. People have to wait for moderation. And this means a comment on a comment may take 24 hours. It places additional pressure on the blog author in continually monitoring the site for comments, especially in trying to decide what is and might not be appropriate. It's comforting to know that a large proportion of the readership trust my decisions but that doesn't make it any easier for me and it really takes the joy away from running the blog.


• It also means that, in spite of a growing readership, fewer people now bother to comment when compared to the halcyon days before the most recent moderation.

And though the readership continues to grow, as this graph & trend line demonstrate, I feel that it's time to say Au Revoir. After all, we've answered the question on Tesco. And we won the Welsh Blog Awards 2011 in the Best Community Blog category. Quite an honour, that. I've also written over 257,000 words in almost 1,000 posts, enough for three average sized books.

But please remember that the well-worn phrase "never say never" applies. Who knows what might happen in the future. The dip in the graph, for example, coincides with a lengthy period in 2009 when this blog fell silent. When we spoke again, we recovered. But it's time to switch off the laptop for now. If you want to know whether we may speak again, your best avenue is to add this blog into an aggregator capable of reading RSS or Atom feeds (e.g. Feedburner, Google Reader plus those integrated into major web browsers). This will automatically tell you when and if we post again.

The written comments during the recent autumn 2011 Rhuthun Blog survey were heart-warming to read and I thank everyone who commented positively. At this point, I should also like to thank every reader, every commenter, and anyone who has suggested something to write about. It's *you* who are the blog, it's your community. It isn't mine, other than the hard work in thumping away at the keyboard to get things flowing. May I again make special mention of the Blog Photographer for help in illustrating many posts. The Photographer wishes to remain as anonymous as do I.

One survey comment of note was this:

"The writer of the blog is pro-Welsh and has an undertone of racism towards incomers moving into the area. This is obvious in the sly comments made from time to time. He does not want Ruthin to change or to slowly die and yet he is happy to criticise or comment on any forward thinking business that chooses to open and inject new life into the town.

"As a business owner, I fear for having a post placed on the blog about my business without my consent and subsequently be publicly gossiped about in the comments section. The blog is good in one way, used incorrectly by the blog readers/commentators it is a poisonous tool that is contributing to the death of the town."

I am not sure how one reader could have gotten things so wrong but if this is the view of the trading community as a whole, I dare not go on. Why would I wish to destroy the town I love?

Here, then, is to Rhuthun's future. Here's to getting more people to venture from the Craft Centre to the town centre; here's to a flourishing independent shop sector as a real antidote to the homogenised & regimented high streets & retail parks that surround us; here's to our secondary school moving from strength to strength; to welcoming tourists aplenty;and here's to each and every member of our community who works hard for the town. I certainly salute you all, thank you for your support and hope that we might meet again in the virtual community that is the Rhuthun/Ruthin Blog.

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